Newspaper Columns

Don’t listen to the CBO

by | Apr 29, 2017 | Newspaper Columns | 0 comments

We should cut our taxes as President Trump proposes.  Why? Because the Congressional Budget Office says it’s a bad idea.

Congress asks the CBO to score tax proposals. To predict how much a new tax will raise. To predict how much a tax increase will raise. Or how much a tax cut will lose for Washington.

There is a small problem.  The CBO is worse than your dog at this. Its record is abominable. I think the CBO is the training ground for weathermen.

Here is one example of how stupid the CBO is with predictions. Remember President Obama? He increased tax rates.  The CBO scored the increases.  Predicted they would haul in an extra $450 billion over ten years.

After a few years even your dog could tell the CBO goofed. So the CBO, ahem, adjusted its predictions. New prediction: Revenues would go down by $4.2 trillion over ten years.

Look at the last two times we raised tax rates on capital gains.  The CBO predicted the higher rates would pull in more revenue.  Result: We pulled in less revenue.

Today the President says we should cut tax rates on income. CBO predicts the lower rates will shrink revenue.  Today the President says we should cut rates on capital gains.  CBO predicts the lower rates will shrink revenue.

Now you may be one of those who think the President is an idiot. If you are in the idiot-studying business you should include the CBO in your studies.  The President has done a lot better with his predictions than the CBO has.

Let’s be fair to the CBO.  Congress tells it to predict in a “static” manner. Predict in a straight line. It should tell it to predict in “dynamic” fashion.

Dynamic scoring figures people and businesses behave differently at different tax rates. Tax Ralph at 60 percent he hides his income and pays zip. Tax him at 20 percent and he confesses and pays up. Tax Ralph Inc. at 50 percent and the company moves overseas.

Back to why we should cut our taxes as the President proposes. Here is a good reason:  Our previous President did the opposite.

Economy was in trouble. President Obama raised income taxes on high earners. Added many new taxes by way of Obamacare. Result: Not good. We suffered the most anemic recovery from a recession since WWII.

Today the economy is in trouble. The last two quarters not good.  Because of that anemic growth that has been going on for years. So President Trump proposes cutting tax rates.  This is the opposite of what President Obama did for an economy in trouble.

In other words, let us not listen to the CBO.  When it predicts on a static basis it gets things horribly wrong.  And let us not do what President Obama did to a weak economy.  Let us do the opposite.

The opposite has a good track record. Before Reagan we had the Carter years. Anemic days for the economy.

So Reagan cut tax rates. The economy roared.  CBO said his tax cuts would shrink revenues for Washington.  Instead, money tumbled in.  In Reagan’s last 6 years revenues grew at double digit rates every year. Many people complain that lower tax rates will hurt our budget. The Reagan years prove the opposite. (Our earlier history with tax cuts does as well.)

Other reasons his tax proposals make sense. We lost many companies because our taxes on them were too high. We tax companies at rates higher than all other developed countries. If we slash those rates we will attract businesses to our shores.  And we will make our companies more competitive.

If you are in the prayer business I hope you pray Congress gets its head out of the sand and cuts our taxes.

       From Tom…as in Morgan.           

       Find Tom on Facebook. You can write to Tom at tomasinmorgan@yahoo.com.